Market

Insights · none proven yet

4 hypotheses are tested after every crawl against 39,441 listings; none currently clears the bar of p < 0.05 with a commercially meaningful effect, so none is shown. An earlier build of this page would have reported a 60% interstate price gap — that figure was entirely explained by some states stocking older, higher-kilometre cars. Once age and odometer are controlled for, the real spread is about 8% and not statistically significant. Under test:

• · regional price spread, adjusted for age and kilometres
• · colour premium, adjusted for age and kilometres
• · national fleet size against time on the lot
• · price cuts against time on the lot

What sells fastest · median days on market, per model

Every row is a car we watched leave the market, aged by the seller’s own listing date. The sales column is there because it matters: a median over four cars is a real number and a noisy one, and these firm up with every pass. Models with fewer than four observed sales are left out rather than estimated.

How fast it sells · from 354 cars watched out of the market

Across 40 makes. A quarter of cars go in under 11 days and a quarter take more than 91, so the median describes almost nothing actually sitting on a lot — which is why the valuation gives days-to-turn per cohort rather than one market number. Both figures are the seller’s own: the listing’s published age and the seller’s count of price moves. We observe a listing for a fraction of its life, so measuring either from our own window said “sells in under a day” and “0% discounted”.

By segment · what is actually on the market

These are dealer websites, so they advertise new and demo stock beside used cars: 55% used, 31% new, 14% demo. The medians below blend all three, which is why the typical odometer looks low — used cars alone sit at 63,534 km. A valuation does not blend them: condition is an explicit adjustment, and a new car is weighted down heavily as a comparable for a used one.

Segment comes from the Green Vehicle Guide where a car matched a record in it, and from the dealer’s own body description otherwise — the last column says which. That distinction matters here: Australian dealers routinely file an SUV under “Wagon”, so classifying from listing text alone made wagons look like the largest segment on the market when they are not. Fuel and ANCAP figures are joined from public datasets, not from the listings.

By make · 83 brands, 834 models in the corpus

Days listed counts from our first observation of each listing, so early numbers understate true time on market. They converge as observation history accumulates.